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User blog:Carrieunderwoodfanforlife/CMT Video of the Year: Predicting the Winner
Video of the Year Nominees Blake Shelton - "Sangria" Cam - "Burning House" Carrie Underwood - "Smoke Break" Chris Stapleton - "Fire Away" Florida Georgia Line - "Sippin' on Fire" Jason Aldean - "Tonight Looks Good on You" Keith Urban - "John Cougar, John Deere, John 3:16" Little Big Town - "Girl Crush" Luke Bryan - "Strip It Down" Sam Hunt - "Break Up in a Small Town" Thomas Rhett - "Die A Happy Man" Tim McGraw - "Humble and Kind" With so many nominees in this category, Carrie will have the toughest competition she's had in years. There's a good mixture of established and new country artists, and all of these artists have had a great year in terms of commercial success and fan support. With that said, the two nominees least likely to win and eliminated first are: Florida Georgia Line - "Sippin' on Fire" Cam - "Burning House" Although Florida Georgia Line had major success after bursting onto the country music scene back in 2013, they haven't quite been able to make as big of a wave as they did with their first single. They have fans certainly, but their fan base simply isn't big enough to take on the likes of Blake, Carrie, Luke and Jason Aldean. Cam has also had big success as a new female artist bursting on the scene. However, she's also fairly new. She didn't start becoming a household name until last year, and her fanbase isn't large enough yet to compete with the older, more established artists in this category. That leaves: Blake Shelton Carrie Underwood Chris Stapleton Jason Aldean Keith Urban Little Big Town Luke Bryan Sam Hunt Thomas Rhett Tim McGraw Here the category becomes a little complicated to narrow down. Each of these artists had big success on country radio with these songs. However, when it comes to the CMT Awards, you have to think about which fan bases will take the time to actually sit down and vote online. So, the next 2 to be eliminated (most likely): Chris Stapleton Thomas Rhett Although he won a Grammy this year, received rave reviews for his album, and also won at the CMA Awards, Chris Stapleton's fans most likely aren't sitting down to vote for his music videos. His music generally appeals to older country music fans. Thomas Rhett would seem like a top contender for this award, but he is still somewhat new on the country scene, and his fan base simply can't compete with more established artists like Luke, Blake, Carrie and Tim. That leaves: Blake Shelton Carrie Underwood Jason Aldean Keith Urban Little Big Town Luke Bryan Sam Hunt Tim McGraw Although Sam Hunt has reinvented the sound of country music this year, he's likely too polarizing to win the top award this year. One thing he may have working in his favor is the slight chance of pop music fans voting for him in addition to country fans, but we can't count on this. He's also somewhat new and needs a couple years to build his fan base to compete with the likes of Blake Shelton. Blake Carrie Jason Keith Little Big Town Luke Tim We now have to narrow the field down to the top 5. This will be extremely difficult, because each of these artists have huge fan bases and are very established in country music. 2016 is proving to be an extremely hard year to pick winners for anything. Everyone has had so much success. With that said, out of these 7, the 2 most likely to go next are: Keith Urban Tim McGraw These guys were huge in the late 90s and through 2010. However, it's 2016. Tons of new artists have since burst onto the scene, and a new generation of country artists are beginning to pop up more and more lately. The older portion of Keith's and Tim's fans probably aren't (and probably don't have the time) to sit down and vote for the CMTs - at least not as much time as it takes to win the award. This is why they probably won't be in the top 5, although Keith may be switched out for Jason. Nonetheless, that leaves as the top 5: Blake Carrie Jason Little Big Town Luke Little Big Town had a huge year with "Girl Crush", and they will most likely take Group Video of the Year as usual (with Lady Antebellum not nominated this year). Blake Shelton is arguably the most easily-recognized male country artist to come around in a decade, with his TV appearances on "The Voice" and his large Twitter following, as well as his much-publicized divorce from Miranda Lambert and new relationship with pop superstar Gwen Stefani. Luke Bryan has a huge legion of fans probably voting non-stop for him - he has a great chance to win this year. Carrie HAS won this award 6 times, for the last 4 years in a row, and her fans vote like crazy for her. It's very possible that she will win again this year, but it's such a tough category this year to predict. In my opinion, the top 3 contenders for the award are Blake, Carrie, and Luke. Category:Blog posts